What is the most obvious thing innocent parents will do in a genuine missing persons case [aside from show appropriate emotion]?

/ nickvdl / 2 Comments

The bad guy in cases where children go missing isn’t so much the parents [who should typically be seen as default suspects without evidence to the contrary], it’s the idea that we don’t know how innocent people are supposed to grieve. Intuitively, I think most of us do. Most of us know that in the most basic sense, when someone close to us dies, grief can be overwhelming, emotions come and go, but that’s not to say grief is paralyzing. It’s often the opposite – parents become lions as they attempt to champion the cause of their charges.

In the Quoirin case it’s hard to make a call in the “appropriate emotion” category simply because we’ve seen very little of the parents, and because we know so little about them. There’s very little to go on. We know the father is a salesman, the mother a marketer, so addressing crowds and trying to convince people of something shouldn’t be out of character for them.Fullscreen capture 20190814 213522

But the thing that’s always so surprising in these cases is the most basic thing. A child goes missing and yet why aren’t the parents seen actively looking for their child? Everyone is searching, hundreds of people, why aren’t you! Why aren’t they photographed searching? Why do we invariably see them reading statements?

It’s perfectly fine to read statements, but do that and search for your child. In a scenario where parents don’t search for their children there can be only two alternatives. Either they’re so grief-stricken they’re unable to move on their own [both parents]. Or they know their child is dead and so even pretending to look [as they see it] is pointless.

In the McCann case, there was also a rush to engage the media, and despite the couple spending four months in Praia da Luz, one never saw cameras following them through any area, ever, searching. It was important that the search continue not matter what the cost, then and now, but they weren’t going to do any searching themselves.

When they traveled abroad it was from one press conference to the next. The police quite justifiably asked them to explain where or how or when they had searched for Madeleine.

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In the JonBenet Ramsey case, several hours after the police arrived, at around 13:00, the father was asked to search his home for his missing six-year-old daughter from top to bottom. That’s how they found her. John Ramsey had to be asked to look for his daughter. [John Ramsey elected to search from bottom to top, and as it happened, JonBenet was in the lowest basement wine cellar of the house].

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Chris Watts is another example of someone who knew where he was family was all along, and while everyone else was looking, he was at home cleaning his home.

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Another question that makes no sense: if the parents were so vocal while Nora was missing, why have the parents been silent following the discovery of Nora’s body?

Their scenario was that she was abducted. This means – in their scenario – an abductor not only took her away, but took her life. Why wouldn’t they be even more indignant given this outcome, and given their beliefs? Find the abductor! Didn’t anyone see anything?

One wonders why the family can’t provide clarity on whether they still feel an abduction took place, or whether they agree with the police that she could have wandered off after all. Or have they taken legal advice to remain silent?

Nora Quoirin: Can we rule out accidental death?

/ nickvdl / 6 Comments

On the face of it, accidental death can be ruled out. Nora Quoirin clearly didn’t fall from the top of the ravine into it. When volunteers saw her body, they originally assumed that she was sleeping, which suggests they saw no obvious injuries or bleeding.

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The fact that the volunteers who found her assumed Nora was elsewhere “and walked to the stream” also addresses the possibility that Nora was initially elsewhere, and that someone else had control or custody or knowledge of her corpse, and when the coast was clear, this person possibly walked to the stream with her body, and left her there.

Besides this, the body didn’t look at though it dropped or landed where it lay, but rather that either Nora herself purposefully and intentionally lay down there herself, or someone lay her down.

The way the body was laid out may indicate that Nora died in her sleep, either where she was found or somewhere else. The fact that she was naked may be due to environmental factors, or this was done intentionally by a third party to suggest something – for example a pedophile abduction.

We can also assume, from the way the body was presented, that either Nora wanted to be found [naked] or didn’t care if she was found in this way, or whoever left her there wanted her to be found [perhaps after a prescribed period of not wanting her to be found]. If the latter, who might experience such a change of heart and why after ten days, why not sooner, or later?3648

Now to address the question on its own merits: irrespective of where the body was found, it’s possible and even likely something happened to Nora somewhere else. It’s possible she fell inside the resort bungalow, or that some other accident occurred, relating to sedatives, or a medical reaction of some sort. So an accidental death is still possible, but the likelihood of some sort of cover up has also increased.

If this is true, and if we assume the potential involvement of family members, then the media attention was a deliberate smokescreen designed not to attract attention to Nora, or to the resort, but effectively to distract away from it, and to – effectively – the media.

Each time the police are giving press conferences it’s also a way to delay and divert the actual search. This isn’t the first time PR has been used to distort or disrupt an investigation. 0_MALAYSIA-BRITAIN-IRELAND-FRANCE-POLICE-MISSING

 

These are the volunteers who found Nora’s body and this is the Quoirin Family Lawyer [PICTURES]

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Sean Yeap [below] his wife Shirley  Yeap and Mary lou were part of a small group of civilian volunteers who found the body. It’s significant that this random, untrained civilian crew were able to find what hundreds of trained searchers [and sniffer dogs] could not.

The trio also said they smelled the remains from a distance.

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Below: Shirley Yeap [left] and Mary Lou [right]. 17261136-7355383-Kenny_Chan_left_Shirley_Yap_centre_and_May_Lou_right_who_were_al-a-24_1565776447002

Sankara N. Nair is the lawyer representing the family. So far he’s been saying the family is traumatized.

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https://twitter.com/CritThink3/status/1161657538896629765

BREAKING: Why French prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Nora Quoirin’s death

/ nickvdl / 1 Comment

There’s a simple reason to classify a case criminal or not. The circumstances around a disappearance or death are either suspicious or they aren’t. If they meet the standard to be reasonably suspicious, then it becomes a criminal investigation.

One of the most suspicious aspects of this case is the imputed “scene” where the body was found. This has been the most mysterious part all along – why was it so difficult to find Nora Quoirin’s body. How did it take ten days?

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It turns out the area where she was found had already been searched. It’s possible someone close to the events knew this, and moved the body there after the fact.

If so, who?

Why?

More: Nora Quoirin: autopsy yet to determine cause of death, say police

Was Nora moved? Volunteer who found Nora Quoirin’s naked body believes she could NOT have been there when search teams first checked the area – Daily Mail

“You can almost hear the wind rustle when you look at this Vincent van Gogh painting.”

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What makes Vincent van Gogh really come alive to us is when we flick the switch of our imaginations, see what he sees, see his life and surrounds as he saw it and experienced it. But we must do the same in terms of his death, if we’re to truly understand what happened and why.

Nora Qoirin: Is the plot thickening?

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Typically, autopsies take two to four hours, and preliminary results are usually available within 24 hours. A full report might take 6 weeks to compile. The fact that Nora Quoirin’s autopsy has taken three to four times longer than a standard autopsy, suggests a complicated crime scene in terms of the victimology.

If Nora did wander the woods for a long time, she may have suffered extensive bruising, cuts and other injuries. Her remains may also have been interfered with by wild animals – a factor that cannot be excluded in a rural, tropical setting over a period of 10 days.

What may make the autopsy difficult is if the remains had been washed several times by successive downpours, or if it fell into water and was put through intermittent cycles of rushing groundwater. This scenario would need to be separated from a cause of death by drowning, for example.

What I would like to know is whether the crime scene where the body was recovered was not covered previously by search teams, earlier in the week. Which is to say, was the area initially excluded, and the body later discovered there by a volunteer, or had the particular area never been searched? The latter is difficult to imagine since it was just 1.6 miles from the resort, with hundreds of trained searchers combing the area, day and night for ten consecutive days.

Search for Nora Quoirin from London, who is currently missing in Malaysiamalaysia

Post-mortem on Nora Quoirin’s remains continues, statement tomorrow – Straits Times

SEREMBAN: The post-mortem examination of the remains of Irish teen Nora Anne Quoirin has turned into a marathon of sorts. The examination, by a team of senior pathologists led by Dr Siew Sheue Feng from Kuala Lumpur Hospital, is still going on, nine hours after it began at 11.45am.

A press conference scheduled for 5pm to announce the initial results of the examination was postponed to 8pm, but as that hour came and went, there was still no sign of senior police officers to update the media.

When deputy state police chief Senior Assistant Commissioner Che Zakaria Othman finally appeared, he said the post-mortem examination was still on-going. He said police could not release any details as yet because of this. “I made a decision based on the instruction of state police chief (Datuk Mohamad Mat Yusop) that a statement will only be issued at a time to be advised tomorrow. There is also no new development at the scene (where Nora Anne’s body was found) that I have to report,” he told a horde of reporters who had been stationed outside the Tuanku Ja’afar Hospital mortuary, some from as early as 6.30am.

Che Zakaria declined to answer any questions. While post-mortem examinations generally take a long time, the fact that this one has taken so long has left many questions lingering in the minds of all following the case.

At 2:45 in the clip below, the former spindoctor for the McCanns [who were once prime suspects in the disappearance and possible death of their daughter] Clarence Mitchell explains why it’s good practice to alert the media when a child abduction happens.

There’s also another issue to address, which was the speed at which the family got a media apparatus up and running. I won’t deal with that aspect just yet, except to point out what this achieves.

At 2:45 in the clip below, Clarence Mitchell, the McCanns’ ex-spin doctor explains why it’s essential to keep a missing persons case alive in the media, especially when these incidents occur in foreign countries.

Mitchell’s spiel is that by alerting international media, pressure is brought to bear on law enforcement, especially external pressure. The suggestion is that without this pressure, the police wouldn’t do their job.

But one could clearly also make the argument that in a scenario where one or both parents are involved in the death of their child, it would theoretically suit them to have some outside entity exerting enormous pressure on the authorities, while leveraging public sympathy to their own benefit. This is a subtle but powerful way to manipulate an investigation, and from the beginning, this was one – the Nora Quoirin disappearance – did experience precisely that kind of external buffeting.

In the McCann case massive external pressure and some of the most high-profile media exposure in the history of true crime was brought to bear. What this did was it pressurized the investigation all right, ultimately leading to a number of court cases, almost all to do with defamation, book deals, and the defense of book deals. No one was charged in the Madeleine McCann case, and the lead investigator soon lost his job because of something he said to the media.

Within the idiosyncracies of the McCann case, Portuguese law has certain privacy constraints as a matter of course when conducting a criminal investigation. The British media and flouted these. Soon investigators were in effect bullied into towing the line and paying homage to the narrative as set out in the media. Much of the tone of this line was orchestrated by the parents themselves, using public fundraising money to pay for PR folks like Clarence Mitchell.

Mitchell has also worked for the disgraced data mining company Cambridge Analytica. Why, when there is a missing child case like this one, is he still being called as a credible spokesman to pontificate on how these cases should be handled? If anything, investigation via PR is how it should not be handled.

THE CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA CRISIS : COMMENT

Cambridge Analytica finally speak to Channel 4 News

Cambridge Analytica approached “tens” of PR agencies for crisis comms support during the Facebook data breach scandal, and every agency refused, says a former senior executive at the firm.

Not So Bright ‘Titanic of a PR’ Clarence Mitchell moves on from a series of toxic clients and becomes spokesman for Cambridge Analytica

Nora Quoirin: TCRS Assessment

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After a 10 day search, sadly – but predictably – 15-year-old Nora Quoirin’s body has been found. It’s the ambit of this site to find answers, and while we are compassionate to what happened to poor Nora, it also matters what happened and who was involved. There are a few things that stood out from the very beginning, and a few aspects that are abundantly clear now. Let’s go through them.

MADELEINE MCCANN PART 2

The speed at which the parents – both parents – were absolutely convinced there was an abduction, without any evidence, and without any confirmation or reinforcement from the police, was the first red flag.  Now it’s one thing if the police are convinced [and have good reason] to speculate in one direction or another, it’s a different kettle of fish when those closest to the victim are making unsubstantiated claims.

One of the first unsubstantiated claims was that Nora was implied to have exited the bungalow through her own bedroom window. But this is what the upstairs bedroom looks like:

17016816-7339617-Nora_s_bedroom_inside_the_Sora_apartment_at_the_Dusun_Resort_in_-a-7_1565319010705Fullscreen capture 20190813 164453

Curiously, this “clue” didn’t come from the parents, but was apparently “leaked” by one of the siblings.

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We see early on that the local law enforcement was quickly pressured by the views of the family that an abduction had taken place. The police were adamant that it wasn’t, but later deferred to the family, and to pressure from international media, that an abduction or kidnapping was possible. As a result, core search teams were split into a local contingent [searching the forests and jungles] and another group to check the nearby towns and settlements for any suspicious leads. We can see how this external pressure was already twisting the focus of the investigation away from the potential crime scene.

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Further familiarity with the inside of the bungalow seemed to confirm the idea of both an abduction and the child wandering off as unlikely. Firstly because the imputed abductor left no clues whatsoever, and secondly because with Nora’s limited faculties, it’s unlikely she would be able to negotiate a foreign spiral staircase at night. Bear in mind Nora was unable to do up her own buttons, and had spatial difficulty. Her particular condition is as a result of the two hemispheres of her brain not separating properly.

It took a while before the family provided details on exactly what Nora’s developmental difficulties were. It turned out to be holoprosencephaly, a rare congenital brain malformation.

The family and the Malaysian authorities were immediately at cross-purposes, which was highlighted in the media. The speed at which the case gained attention was also due to the Quoirin family having spokespeople reading statements prepared by the girl’s mother, and others fundraising abroad, on their behalf.

When Nora’s parents did speak it was to thank the police for their investigation, even though the police hadn’t completed the investigation. Nora’s mother also said right at the end, “We hope you find Nora” not “we hope we find Nora”. In terms of the optics of the video below, Nora’s father initially appears out of site of the camera, peeks round, then stands showing support, but does so a little stiffly. His wife doesn’t acknowledge him and he doesn’t say anything to the media.

Although this is by no means a scientific comment to make, although the parents say the right things, there’s no obvious sign of being overwhelmed by emotion, as one might expect. There are no tears, and of the parents, the husband seems partically emotionless. In light of the fact that he was shouting emotionally at the resort manager earlier, this mismatch is a potential flag.

The video below presents the same press conference as above, but this time showing the father as well. Notice how hyper-vigilant he is, eyes darting around, but once again not needing to say or express anything. There also seems to be very little rapport between husband and wife.

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There are other similarities to the McCann case, such as the early anger directed at the Malaysian authorities for taking too long to respond.

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More here: Malaysia – Nora Quoirin, 15, from UK

ABUNDANTLY CLEAR NOW

These are the undisputed facts according to The Telegraph:

Her naked body was found in a ravine in the forest surrounding the resort, following a 350-person search involving police, volunteer hikers and even shamans. National deputy police chief Mazlan Mansor told reporters at a press conference that a body that “resembles Nora” had been found beside a small stream about 1.6 miles from the resort. He said the body was unclothed but declined to comment on whether it had any injuries.  The body was taken to hospital by helicopter where it was identified.

We know that Nora’s body was 1) in an inaccessible area 2) 1.6 miles from the resort. Both of these disqualify an innocent explanation, ie that Nora “wandered off”. Her parents have been firm that Nora would never have wandered off, and this assertion may well come back to haunt them.

The fact that the area was inaccessible even to search crews, and took 10 days of searching to find, is indicative that Nora herself probably didn’t get there on her own. The fact that it required a helicopter and winch to recover her remains, reinforces the notion that someone may have gone to some trouble to hide her body.

The scenario that Nora wandered off and got into trouble isn’t impossible at this point, just unlikely. Over a period of time obviously she could have wandered further and further and got more and more lost, but one imagines had she been in distress she would have cried out, and had she been alive for even one day, she would have been found.

As the details of her condition and her dependence on her parents becomes clearer we ought to move closer to addressing “why” and what happened. The operant family dynamics will play a crucial role in illuminating this case.

More: Nora Quoirin: Body found in Malaysia is missing girl – BBC

Nora Quoirin cops fly body out of jungle which was found a mile from where missing 15-year-old Brit girl vanished from Malaysia hotel room – The Sun

#38 August 10th, 2018: Happy Anniversary! #1yearagotodayCW

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Why did Chris Watts take off work on Friday, August 10th? Because Shan’ann left first thing in the morning. Did he want to take off work? Being away from work meant being away from Nichol Kessinger. He’d been away for a week, then back at work for a day. On Friday he was away from her again, and back to babysitting. This was a sample of what custody might be like. Basically being with his kids meant he couldn’t be with her.

But putting up his hand to look after Bella and Ceecee was contingent on Shan’ann going ahead with her business trip. If there was going to be a chance of seeing Kessinger that weekend, he’d at least have a chance if he only had the kids on his hands. If Shan’ann was around, there’d be no chance of that.  So he played nice, reassured her, and off she went.

Watts must have felt like he was getting pretty good at spinning plates. He was on a roll.

The tone of Shan’ann’s “all is well” text to him that morning exemplifies this.

Good morning honey! Sorry to make you wake up early twice today. I didn’t want alarm going off…your letter is on the counter…have a great time with the kiddos. They truly missed you. Love you baby. Send me pics. 

Why does Shana’nn tell him now, that his children missed him when he was away? It’s because he expressed to her that that when they saw their father, they didn’t act like they missed him. They didn’t act like they needed him either. We also saw in the video at Myrtle Beach Watts repeatedly holding out his hand to guide Bella into the sea [her first time] and Bella refusing his help. Ordinarily this might not have bothered him, but he’d been away from his children for 5 weeks, and this was a big moment, made worse because Shan’ann was filming it.

23 minutes later, Shan’ann’s “all is well” facade has already started to slip.

“I don’t know why I feel really weak standing…”

This was probably a form of gestational diabetes, which is normal given her condition, but given the timing of it, it’s not unreasonable to speculate that Watts may have tried to poison Shan’ann. The basement was chock-full of medicines and she was always taking pills and powders. While sleeping in the basement, these potions were staring at him, gleaming at him through their transparent containers. The lights of the router were ticking and blinking, tempting him.

Do it.

Do it.

At 07:51 Jeremy Lindstrom congratulates Watts on the baby boy. This sets the tone for the whole day, and the weekend. Watts has to absolutely make sure the news doesn’t reach Kessinger. He has to start formulating his plan. He asks Jeremy when the birthday party starts on Sunday. 13:00. Shan’ann will be arriving back ten hours later the same evening. When will he be able to talk to Kessinger?

It’s significant that the Happy Anniversary messages between Watts and his wife aren’t on his phone. Watts must have known the cops would seize his phone, and this message above all would prove that he’d been lying about intending to separate or divorce his wife, as well as the notion that she intended to leave him [or had had a child with someone else]. It’s also worth noting that Shan’ann didn’t post any message regarding their anniversary on Facebook. Had he asked her not to do that too?

As early as 09:24 Watts had already decided how Saturday night was going to play out. He had a babysitter organized, and importantly, it was one of his friends, not Nickole Atkinson, not one of Shan’ann’s pals, who’d be in the house.

By 11:57 he was moving onto dealing with the house. Bear in mind, during his confessions he mentioned talking about selling the house on the morning of Shan’ann’s death. Well, they’d spoken about it before, as early as Thursday, and probably prior to that too.

Shan’ann sends him a link to their realtor, Ann Meadows. Why does Watts need it? And why then? Why ask for it on Friday morning? He needed it because he was taking back his house. Once she was dead, it was going to be much harder to make arrangements and find their original contacts.

Watts had also taken care of the insurance of the Lexus, but it’s unclear whether that was at his own initiative or an instruction from Shan’ann. The research into various car models at this time [he Googled Audi Q7 the previous night] also suggests he was thinking of coming into some money, and would need a chariot for his mistress. Once Shan’ann was dead the Lexus would have to go, and he couldn’t use his work truck.

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This reinforces the possibility that Watts was terrible with money.

At this point, the final three days leading into the disappearance, the Phone Data Review explodes. The reviewer intrudes here, breaking in with his own observations, noting how Shan’ann was “upbeat and optimistic” for the first time in weeks.

Shan’ann did feel they had turned a corner, but that’s because Watts had. Shan’ann’s emotional style was expressive and obvious whereas Watts was subtle, understated and introverted. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t feel what he felt less keenly than she did. Introverts, if anything, feel their emotions more keenly than others, and because they fear being overwhelmed by their emotions [as Watts was] they try to stifle and suppress their “inappropriate” emotions.

Let’s stop there. We’re venturing into deep psychological analysis covered in the TWO FACE series.

Getting back to the timeline, we see there’s a lot of detail right here that’s missing from the rest of the Phone Data Review. For example, we’re starting to see when Watts’ phone connects to the router. We’ll also see Vivint alerts. The forensic analysis highlights these because almost everything becomes relevant in the last few days. But because it’s excised from earlier in the timeline, we can’t see what the precedents were. We don’t get a sense of Watts’ habitual movements or the digital ecosystem, all the blinking light and notifications he was accustomed to on a daily basis.

Now, I’m not going to deal with Watts meeting with his Anadarko co-worker Troy McCoy in the Safeway parking lot, what that means and how that played into premeditation. I’m not even going to touch on Troy McCoy’s version of that meeting in the Discovery Documents, even though it’s of critical importance. Why not? We’re venturing into territory now covered in detail by the books, especially TWO FACE RAPE OF CASSANDRA and TWO FACE DRILLING THROUGH DISCOVERY. 

At this point, however, things are rapidly gaining momentum; thing are really starting to move. Between several texts from Shan’ann issuing instructions, Watts’ father contacts him at 13:50. [Remember the observations made in the previous post about “missing messages from parents”?]. Watts tells his father he’s liberated himself by deleting his Facebook. That’s what this weekend is all about – liberating himself – and by the end of it, he will try to liberate himself from his wife and children too.

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It’s telling that on this day, a week after their trip to the Sand Dunes, Watts was still replaying the video Kessinger had made thanking him for their trip. It was this video at the end of the evening, when the kids were in bed, that convinced him a fairy tale with his forever girl wasn’t just possible, it was happening. It was up to him to make sure nothing and no one got in the way.

 

#37 August 9th, 2018: U-Turn and “He’s not that stupid” #1yearagotodayCW

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We’ll start this recap with a broader recap of the contextual aspects, and then we’ll drill into the Phone Data Review timeline for August 9th?

Worth playing for?

BROAD CONTEXTUAL RECAP

Despite the drama on August 8th, Shan’ann gave a glowing report of herself to the Thrive huns haunting Facebook. This selfie would be her second last post before her death.

Look closely at this final self-portrait:

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It’s Shan’ann in her kitchen, healthy, happy to be back home again. She’s Thrivin’! But the picture – we know now – was another lie. The smile is a fake smile. Look at her slightly watery eyes. Look at what the point of the picture is all about? Her varnished nails point to the Thrive patch below her neck.

They say a picture says a thousand words. If Shan’ann wasn’t so distracted and preoccupied with the magical thinking, the whole MLM malestrom, would this tragedy have happened? If she was an authentic person living an authentic life, and pursuing an authentic fairy tale, would this have happened? If her finger – and her focus – was pointing somewhere else, anywhere else, would this have happened?

Let’s refer to the substance of her second last post visible on her public profile.

Once again, this was a precedent for what happened on the morning of her murder, now barely 4 days away:

-Went to bed at 2am, up at 5:15am
-2 loads of laundry 
-dusted whole house
-cleaned out fridge and pantry and restocked
-2 grocery stores with kids 🙌🏽
-Celeste Doctor appointment 👨‍⚕️
-emptied 7 suitcases/3 backpacks and put away
-fed kids a million times
-we all showered (we know this is a win)
-went through 6 weeks of mail 🤪
-washed kitchen floor
-cleaned up kids disaster 
-repacked my suitcase for Arizona this Friday 

They literally said, “we’re going to bed!” And put themselves to bed! Rain machines on and all. They are obviously exhausted from traveling and playing. I’m over here knocking everything out and it’s only noon! The old me would live out of a suit case for 1-2 weeks till it was empty again. 

All while 4 months preggo! Love my Thrive Experience! 

#Doctorapproved

But while Shan’ann’s loving her Thrive experience, she’s actually facing a growing catastrophe at home. Her husband wants an abortion, she think he’s cheating on her [he is], he won’t have sex with her, and they’re up to their eyeballs in serious debt. The last thing she can afford is to be doing is travelling anywhere else.

It may be that when Shan’ann went through the six weeks of mail she saw [or remembered] the summons from Wyndham Hill Housing Estate, and also reassessed reality – that there was no way she was going to survive as a single parent with three children in Colorado. She needed to find a way to ease Watts back into the idea of being a dad, father and most important, provider for her and the kids.

It may also be that Watts was reassured that Shan’ann was at last seeing the light, in terms of their finances, and now was prepared to listen to the idea at least, of moving and downsizing. Clearly August 9th in the timeline feels like there is some mutual reassurance, but is it real? Was it sustainable?

This reassurance prompted a U-turn, possibly, in her attitude and his attitude. It was temporary, but both seemed to have second thoughts about everything. It was time, she realized, to make an effort to get her husband back and just sort everything out.  It was also time to renew her efforts and commitment to Thrive!  Shan’ann was so confident in getting him back on board, that the next day, she was onto her next priority, the business trip to Arizona.

She felt justified that she’d done enough, and flew to Arizona as scheduled, anyway. But this was a fatal miscalculation. If Shan’ann thought a renewed focus on Thrive was going to get them out of their financial mess, she was literally dead wrong. Shan’ann didn’t know that this was the worst possible decision under the circumstances, because:

  1. It wouldn’t solve their financial woes, but the opposite. In fact while she was away Watts would treat himself and his girlfriend to a fancy meal, while paying for a babysitter.
  2. It wouldn’t solve her marital woes, but the opposite. While away, Watts would have the opportunity for a final foray with his mistress, which possibly coalesced the premeditation already brewing in his mind.
  3. Further, by leaving when she did, she would leave her children vulnerable. This despite a previous post undertaking to do “everything in her power” to protect her youngest daughter.
  4. While Shan’ann was away her husband had the opportunity to murder their children. This should be seen in the context that he’d already indicated he was prepared to abort their third child, told her he wanted a divorce and she’d told him she felt unsafe around him.
  5. By leaving when she did, she made herself vulnerable. And when she returned home – very late – from that trip, she was the most vulnerable she’d ever been.

AUGUST 9TH DRILL DOWN

Moving onto August 9th, rather than having an ideal pregnancy and tons of energy, Shan’ann was up before 03:00 gabbing about her marriage with Sara Nudd. The gender reveal appeared to have been scheduled for the night of August 8th [the day after their return to Frederick]. Shan’ann was really chomping at the bit, insisting on telling the world [all her followers on social media] the gender of her child, regardless of the situation with her husband. Somehow Watts got her to change her mind, but only enough to postpone the gender reveal. Even so, it’s what Shan’ann’s talking about privately to her pals.

There is a tug of war going on here, where Shan’ann probably thought if she announced the news on social media, her husband would be done with his shit. He’d have to come to the party. If he was in an affair, well, he’d just have to get out of it. It was her way of regaining control.

For his part, Watts had reasons – not necessarily good – for not wanting a gender reveal. He didn’t want to be coerced into a marriage he didn’t want to be in, and he didn’t want to lose Kessinger.

Now, the Phone Data Review gets screwy on page 27. It refers to Watts taking the day off work [he didn’t, that was the next day], Shan’ann flying to Arizona [she didn’t, that was the next day] and Shan’ann going to the Ultrasound [that was the previous day].

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At 10:06 Shan’ann shared an ultrasound image of Niko with Sara Nudd. This image came from the previous evening when Shan’ann and her husband went to the doctor. Although Watts said he wanted to be there, it’s likely the reality of the situation he was in dawned on him in full technicolor.

It’s also tremendously ironic that this image on Shan’ann’s phone, of burgeoning new life,  was followed by one of a doll wrapped in plastic, symbolizing death [and we know the symbology played out]. Looking on Shan’ann’s Facebook, it was posted with the same message on August 9th. It was also the last photo Shan’ann posted on Facebook.

Was this a veiled threat from her husband, a warning earlier in the day that if she persisted this would happen to her, or to the kids? If it was, Shan’ann didn’t know what to think of the message, or if she did, she made sure social media got to see it.

Occasionally the Phone Data Review jumbles the chronology of various timestamps, not so much on August 9th, but on other, more critical days. What’s also missing from the review are messages from their respective parents, unless the parents communicated directly or otherwise exclusively through social media. If so, where are those interactions?

We also see confirmation of the level of access and control Shan’ann had to Watts’ world. If she thought she had Watts’ under her thumb, she also badly misjudged him. Shan’ann admits to Addy here that she’s asked about the affair but knows he’s “not that stupid” [he is].

Shan’ann naively didn’t check his phone, perhaps she was afraid of what she’d find if she did, perhaps she was in denial. But she seemed to be aware her husband was deleting messages. Where they really messages from his father? We know from what Shan’ann said to Cassie that Shan’ann decided not to push Watts.Fullscreen capture 20190806 005941-001

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Well, he decided to play his own game too, didn’t he? He decided not to push her too. In the same way she gave him 5 weeks space to play by not pushing him, by her not pushing him and him not pushing her too hard, he gained a little extra room to manoevre.

It may be when Shan’ann caught him deleting something, he said it was a message from his father. In any event, if he was deleting messages from his father, the Phone Data Review makes no attempt to explain what they were. Another flaw in the investigation methodology.

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Either way, Watts and his wife seemed to be in a psychological wrestling match. Shan’ann took the time to pen a love letter to him.  For the full text of this letter, visit this link.]

If we compare the tone of her letter to him, to his declarations to Kessinger [or Kessinger’s to him], Shan’ann’s is the least charming. She refers to the “hardest pain” she’s feeling. It’s as if when it comes to love letters, Shan’ann has no game herself. She tells him she misses his morning breath, and seeing him naked. She says she misses having him around when she’s alone and upset.  After making some effort in the first paragraph, the next is prickly again.

She refers back to Nut Gate and says she deserves an apology. Then she refers to her daughter’s life…

But Watts appears to do a U-Turn, of sorts. It seems they strike a bargain. She’ll lay off the gender reveal until Monday if he agrees to go with her on a romantic weekend to Aspen. He agrees. What he wins is a postponement, what she wins is the promise that there’s still a ray of hope for their marriage. He knows there isn’t, but he lets her think this so she’ll get off his back.

At 13:44 Shan’ann realizes Watts has cancelled his Facebook account. She asks why and he doesn’t answer. Because Shan’ann is in “don’t push him mode” she lets the significant move by Watts slide. Another fatal error.

Incidentally Cassie and the discovery are mistaken about Watts deleting his Facebook account while they were in North Carolina. It happened on the second day of their return.

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Although Watts said in his confession he deleted his Facebook because Kessinger had told her friends about him, it’s more likely Watts was terrified Shan’ann, or someone else, would share or post a message about his new baby.

We can see Watts was all about damage control, and making sure the “wrong” information about him didn’t come out. The only way he could control Shan’ann was to manipulate her into thinking he was prepared to give her a chance, in exchange for her toeing the line – being discreet about the baby, not mentioning it on social media until Monday.

Watts knew the game he was playing with his wife and Kessinger was almost up.

It’s all in my head.

I’m scared to death.

I will fix this.

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We also see Watts electing to take off work but also meet a work colleague the next day.  This is unusual behavior for him, on both counts. Bear in mind this happens just as the crushing reality of his situation dawns on him.

If the flower of premeditation hadn’t fully bloomed before August 9th, well, it was blooming now. He had his deadline – by Monday he had to have everything fixed. Deleting Facebook was his first in a series of cover ups.

While he was plotting the demise of his family, Shana’nn was planning its reconstruction. She ordered a book for him on Amazon the day [one that would go straight to the trash bin once he got it the next day].

On Thursday evening Shan’ann and her husband had a “good” talk. He’s still distant, but there’s been a sudden change. He’s kinda being the old Chris again. They decide on a name for their little boy, and Watts also tells Shan’ann he wants to – they have to – move to Brighton. When the police interrogate him Watts will offer this conversation as a proxy for the one he doesn’t have prior to murdering Shan’ann. It’s likely that when Watts spoke to Shan’ann, now pretending to be okay and going along with the idea of their third child, the second face of Chris Watts separated and broke off completely. He realized it was an impossible, irreconcilable situation. There was no way he could trust Shan’ann, or her him, and no way he could control her. He didn’t want to lose control, not now. He realized he was going to have take control. He would need to become someone else to pull this off.

Watts told Shan’ann he loved her, and found this was his only recourse in steering things where they needed to go. He’d have to pretend. But now he was at an impasse with Monday set as the deadline.

Only one reality would exist after that date, and it was up to him to choose which one he wanted. His life with Shan’ann and the kids? Well he knew he didn’t want that. His life with Kessinger? In order to have that life he was going to have to get rid of his family. But how? He didn’t know what to do. All he knew was they had to go, he had to get rid of her – them – somehow.

At the end of the evening Watts went to sleep in the basement. He looked up at the wooden beams above his bed. He thought of where he was, in a basement, below ground, below the house. Then he transferred more semi-nude images of Kessinger into his Secret Calculator app.

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No one has been able to say why – until now.

Buy the 9-part book series at this link.