July 19th, 2018 was a Thursday. Watts called Shan’ann presumably just prior to leaving for work.

We have no idea who Watts communicated with mid-morning that Thursday for seven minutes.

We also have no idea what Watts was doing when he logged onto Facebook. Was he reviewing what Shan’ann had said? It’s unfortunate during the several hours Watts was interrogated, he wasn’t specifically shown the Phone Data Review and asked to explain, and whether he could recall, someone of these interactions. What was discussed in those numerous conversations between him and his wife? Who was this unidentified contact? What was he doing on Facebook [and on the 20th, Snapchat]?

Thursday was also leading to the weekend. Watts had four precious weekends in July when he had the space to conduct the affair. Four weekends. He had to make each one count, because they might be his last with his mistress.

Going through the timeline of July 18th, we see that by the end of the day Watts was looking into vacation rentals in Myrtle Beach. This suggests the calls earlier in the day was Shan’ann telling him she refused to see his family.

This was two weeks before Watts was due to join his family in North Carolina.

We know this change of plan weighed heavily on Watts. Watts told investigators on February 18th he was angry at Shan’ann for separating him from his family. One wonders what he meant exactly, and for when exactly. Did he mean his children, his parents, specifically after Nut Gate, or did Nut Gate remind him of the enmity that had persisted throughout his entire marriage, including the wedding?

One aspect that bothered him most was how Shan’ann’s grudge had now rippled around to include his father as well. This was like Watts losing an important psychological anchor, and by doing that, he no longer wanted to be a father or a husband for or with Shan’ann. Of course, Kessinger also provided plenty of fuel for this psychology. She was also encouraging him tacitly or overtly not to be a husband.

On July 18th Watts seemed to realize for the first time he would be heading back to the wolf, and he’d need to cover his tracks if he wanted to keep the affair going. He wanted to keep his treasure trove of sexy pictures, but how? The massive transfer of semi-naked images on July 18th was the first seditious move, where Watts deliberately put in place a system to deceive and undermine his wife and family.

Think about the Secret Calculator as an analogy for Watts as well. He was using a Secret Calculator, a secret password, using something in plain sight to hide information that could be devastating to his wife, children, and his own future if he wasn’t careful. Shan’ann might take the phone but be none the wiser. This gave him at least the seed of an idea. What if he could do something…but hidden by technology…Vivint sensors, cell phone messages, GPS tracking…but hidden in plain sight, hidden inside an average morning going to work like he always did?

The Secret Calculator is an analogy for Watts himself, and who he started becoming in terms of his criminal capacities as soon as he’d installed it. He is a Secret Calculator too, now.

And this got the ball rolling. He didn’t want to go there, he didn’t want to be there, he wished he could make it disappear so he could get back to the new love of his life. And this is the thought that he sat with quietly, ruminating, while Shan’ann continued to confidently change plans and call the shots.

About a month before his arrest, Watts is out in open prairie at the Cervi Ranch, north of Roggen. Shan’ann had called him a few hours earlier.

When we look at these cases in hindsight, we tend to project the future into them, the end result that we know is coming. But we don’t project the past, or the situation the perpetrator is in, and knows is coming.

When Watts was at Cervi Ranch that day in July, taking photos, did he think this would be a good place to get rid of bodies? Because he didn’t think that thought for the first time on Sunday night/Monday morning [August 12/13]. So when did the thought, the murderous impulse, occur to him for the first time?

And when he bought his new boots, did he think of making further changes to his wardrobe, his home, his circumstances?

 While we’re out in the country north of Roggen, let’s dip into a little Intertextuality. It’s been reported recently that a man in Crete murdered an American woman because he was frustrated with his own life [and sexual frustration was a big part of that frustration]. Incidentally, this case also started off as a “disappearance”.

Suzanne Eaton’s colleagues initially believed she had either fallen while jogging or suffered from heat exhaustion and was resting somewhere. But the Intertextual part is where her killer dumped the poor woman’s body.

From CNN:

Last Monday, her body was discovered by two locals deep inside a cave, according to Crete’s Chief of Police Konstantinos Lagoudakis. The 59-year-old Eaton was found around 60 meters (nearly 200 feet) inside the cave, beneath an air shaft that had been covered by a large wooden pallet. The underground caverns had been turned into a bunker by Nazi soldiers during the Second World War.

Wheel tracks lead officers to the suspect, police said, explaining that they had linked tracks found near the bunker to his car, which, they say, he cleaned in a graveyard after the attack on Eaton.

During preliminary questioning, the 27-year-old suspect denied having been near the bunker for a month, which raised suspicions, Lagoudakis said. Signals from the suspect’s phone also placed him near the crime scene on the day of the attack, the police chief said. Police say the suspect is a married father of two who owns farmland near the crime scene. 

The local police also used aerial support to search for her, but in the end tire tracks, local knowledge and cellphone data proved more useful. Where bodies are hidden in the outdoors, look for locals with local knowledge, and often [but not always] vehicles used to transport the body. Other high-profile reference cases where bodies were disposed of outdoors: West Memphis Three, Madeleine McCann, Casey Anthony and Scott Peterson.

Throughout Saturday in mid-July, exactly a month before the murders, Watts is less available when Shan’ann calls, and investing more of his free time with Nichol Kessinger. He also logs onto Facebook at 10:19. Why? He did this only a few minutes after Kessinger called him.

On July 14th Shan’ann made at least 10 unanswered calls to Watts. One of these calls occurred during a 43 minute conversation when Watts and Kessinger were speaking. In all Watts and Kessinger spoke to each other over the phone for close to an hour, while Watts and his wife spoke less than 12 minutes.

If Kessinger was aware Watts was having issues with his wife, she may have offered him advice, or even counseling. Did Watts tell Kessinger about Nut Gate? Did Kessinger see any of it on Facebook?

Based on his lack of communication, Shan’ann had to have been aware on July 14th that things had seriously deteriorated in her marriage.

Over this same period the Steelers were playing their games, but in stark contrast to the past, this time there was no family solidarity, no dressing in the same outfits and supporting their team together.