#49 Wednesday August 29th, 2018: Colorado Bureau of Investigation Agent texts Nichol Kessinger if she’s read *THIS* blog #1yearagotodayCW

Between 09:45 and 10:09 on the morning of August 29th, 2018, a Wednesday, Nichol Kessinger sends Colorado Bureau of Investigation Agent Kevin Koback the following text:


This is in reference to news circulating in the media about Watts possibly being involved with another man [Trent Bolte], and which I was covered in a post the day prior on Shakedown.

Was Chris Watts having an affair with another man? UPDATED [August 28th, 2018]

Koback answers that yes, he is aware of the news, and asks Kessinger if Watts ever mentioned anything “about that?”

KESSINGER: Not at all. I don’t know if I believe this yet but he fooled me into thinking he was a much different person than he is, so anything is possible.

As an afterthought, Kessinger added that she might have some reinforcing information.

KESSINGER: But I do have some dates for things he said that I think [are] in line with some things that other man [Trent Bolte] claimed. I already had them on my list to talk to you about.

Koback answers with a single word.


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And then Koback sends Kessinger a follow-up question with a link to a blog post I authored on Shakedown, dated August 23rd, 2018. This link:


I posted that blog two days after Watts appeared in court for the second time, based on information presented [and later removed/redacted] from the Warrantless Arrest Affidavit.

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Since the affidavit explicitly mentioned Watts was actively having an affair with a co-worker, it didn’t take a Rocket Scientist to figure out who she was. All one had to do was go through the list of female names on the affidavit, exclude those involved in law enforcement, and cross-reference those affiliated with the oil industry. More likely than not the likely candidate would be reasonably attractive and probably, though not necessarily, close to Watts’ age or slightly younger.

In the end there was only one name, one likely candidate that stood out. A certain Nichol Kessinger was one of a handful of names listed as “address pending”. The others included Frank Rzucek Junior, Nickole Utoft Atkinson [spelled incorrectly], Jeremy Lindstrom [spelled incorrectly], Cristina Meacham [spelled incorrectly], Addy Molony [spelled incorrectly] and Sam Paisley. None of these individuals had connections to the oil industry, and half of the women weren’t even resident in Colorado.

There was also another compelling reason why it probably was Kessinger. Because there was almost no evidence of her online. By as early as August 23rd, Kessinger had scrubbed virtually all traces of herself online, but not everything. This photo, for example, came up.


Google cache still had a reference to Kessinger working for Halliburton, a company associated with the oil industry.


And with a little digging, it turned out Kessinger’s father lived in Arvada and was also affiliated with the oil industry.


Arvada, incidentally, is where Kessinger and her father [and her dog] had their very first interview with the FBI at around midday on August 15th, 2018.  It was the same day Watts failed his polygraph and by the end of it, he’s partially confessed to the crime.

Kessinger’s response to Koback’s text asking her, “Have you seen this?” and the link to the Shakedown post Is SHE Chris Watts’s Mystery Mistress? was yeah, she had seen it.


KESSINGER: Yeah I saw that. Those people are grasping at straws. That picture is very very old and they don’t have my last few employers or my correct address. Or even my last few addresses for that matter. I’m really doing my best to stay under the radar as long as possible. Do they release more information about his case at his hearing on November 19?

But “those people” weren’t grasping at straws. It turned out it was Kessinger all along, and while the media only disclosed her identity in an “exclusive” published by the Denver Post on November 16, three days before the final sentencing hearing, the real scoop had been published by me almost three months earlier, as early as August 23rd, just ten days after the incident.

In late August, Kessinger was right about one thing. People were grasping at straws because tight control was being managed around the information in this case. Some of the less intuitive argued in the months that followed that Kessinger wasn’t necessarily the mystery mistress, because there wasn’t absolute proof that she worked at Anadarko.

The media remained strangely silent on the matter while going crazy about Trent Bolte as well as another dubious mistress Watts supposedly met on Tinder. In hindsight, both of these charlatans appeared to be either random attempts by individuals to hog the limelight, or someone was purposefully and strategically trying to misdirect attention and speculation away from Kessinger [and Anadarko] in the run up to the trial in November. 

Did they succeed?

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More:  More Photos of Chris Watts’ Mystery Mistress [Updated] [October 17, 2018]

Text Messages Between Nichol Kessinger and CBI Agent Kevin Koback – includes a reference by Koback and Kessinger to #SHAKEDOWN

You haven’t seen these photos of Shan’ann and Chris Watts

#48 Sunday August 26th, 2018: The Headline that never made Headlines Anywhere, Ever: PLEA DEAL OFFERED LESS THAN 1 WEEK AFTER FORMAL CHARGES WERE LODGED AGAINST CHRIS WATTS #1yearagotodayCW

Who is – or was – the mysterious entity that contrived the plea deal in this case?

Or is there no mystery, Watts – never the sharpest tool in the shed to begin with – knew his goose was cooked, agreed to a plea deal and signed away his life.

Which is it?

This is truly astonishing, without doubt the most astonishing aspect of this entire case. It’s not the crime itself that’s shocking, it’s the decision not to prosecute it. It’s the decision, seemingly by everyone, not even to go to trial – because who cares about answers?

to recap, on Tuesday, August 21st, formal charges were filed in court against Chris Watts. It was his second of what would ultimately be only four court appearances. By Sunday, just three work days after the charges were announced, a plea deal was on the cards. Take a moment to absorb that.

The plea offer was sent via email on Sunday, August 26th, at 11:58 [or possibly 11:56] from Watts’ defense lawyer John Walsch to Deputy District Attorney Steve Wrenn.

Just ten days after endless hours vigorously denying that he’d a) had an affair, b) harmed his wife, or c) killed his children, but then d) finally blaming Shan’ann for murdering them instead, Watts was apparently ready to throw in the towel. It had taken him four-and-a-half days not just to have the idea fielded, but to make a decision on it.


The email reads:

To: Steve Wrenn

Subject: Chris Watts

Dear Detective Wrenn

The defendant, Christopher Watts, is willing to agree to waive his right to be indicted and to plead guilty to all charges of first degree murder charges if our office is willing to remove the possibility of the death penalty.


John Walsch


Sometimes True Crime Rocket Science isn’t about seeing what no one else is seeing. It’s about seeing what is in plain sight – seeing what everyone is seeing – from the right perspective. Pretty straightforward. But what is “the right perspective”? Well, that’s the trick, isn’t it?

Are you an aficionado of the Chris Watts case? You know pretty much all there is, read all the books, studied all the blogs, watched all the videos, and a year later there’s not really anything new to you at this point? In other words, you might be a guru or rocket scientist? But you could also be a cup that’s already full, and no one can fill a cup that’s already full.

Let’s test how full your Rocket Science cup is on the plea deal score.


Simple question:

Whose idea was the plea deal?

Take a moment to think about that and leave your answer in the comments. Do it now. Then read further, and if you feel moved to do so, leave a second comment.

Let’s run through 8 yes/no questions, but really they’re all about one question:

Whose idea was the plea deal?

Last chance to definitively commit to an answer before we go down the list.


  1.  Yes or no: was the plea deal John Walsch’s idea? [See Exhibit A above, the email offering the plea deal.]
  2. Yes or no: was the plea deal Chris Watts’ idea?
  3. Yes or no: was the plea deal Chris Watts’ family’s idea?
  4. Yes or no: was the plea deal Steve Wrenn’s idea, or anyone else on the prosecution side of the equation?
  5. Yes or no: was the plea deal the Rzuceks’ idea?
  6. Yes or no: was the plea deal Nichol Kessinger’s idea, or suggestion?
  7. Yes or no: was the plea deal to avoid the death penalty?
  8. Have we missed anyone on this list? What was the purpose of the plea deal, and if the answers to #1-7 are “no” whose idea was it?

Whatever your answer, this was the media narrative after the fact, courtesy of the arch spinners of true crime yarns, People [November 19th, 2018]:

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Who persuaded Watts to plead, but more importantly, why not take the case to trial if you weren’t Chris Watts?

#47 Tuesday August 21st, 2018: Chris Watts formally charged with the murders of his wife and two daughters #1yearagotodayCW

Over the weekend, a weekend that was supposed to be spent celebrating a gender reveal, before changing that to a romantic marriage-saving break in Aspen, instead a candlelight vigil was held outside 2825 Saratoga Trail. This vigil was held to remember Shan’ann, Bella and Ceecee, whose bodies had been recovered at an Anadarko well site earlier in the week. They had been missing since Monday morning.

Hundreds gathered on the lawn of the big brown house as the sun was setting on Saturday afternoon.

Whatever Watts’ plans for his mistress, he spent his weekend in jail, while Nichol Kessinger enjoyed her final weekend of anonymity. No one knew then that Watts even had a mistress.

By Monday, when the warrantless arrest affidavit revealed as much, her goose was cooked.  [She would have a few additional days grace before her name began to blitz through social media].

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Weld County and Watts’ defense counsel also worked feverishly over the weekend. By Monday they had prepared 63 motions between them.

Fullscreen capture 20190820 141336 It should be noted when Watts appeared in court [this would be his second of a total of only four appearances], he denied killing his children, but was charged with their murders regardless. This must have seemed like a cruel blow to Watts, who may have believed – until a certain point – that Coder and Lee had believed his lies.

In any event, the arrest affidavit and the charges made it clear what the authorities actually believed. Briefly, they accused Watts of the premeditated murder [acting after deliberation] of his wife and children, and accused him of committing all three crimes at his home  before transporting their bodies to the oil site. The affidavit suggested that the crimes were committed in one or several of the bedrooms upstairs.

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Once the preliminary hearing was concluded on Tuesday morning, in the Division 5 court, the Weld County District Attorney Michael Rourke introduced himself to the media and held a brief press conference. Shan’ann’s father, who’s grief was written over his face throughout the hearing, made a short statement to the media as well, reading from a small scrap of yellow paper [possibly taken from a legal pad].

By the end of the day the Chris Watts case was the highest-profile true crime case in America, and the community believed a criminal trial [possibly involving a death penalty] was a foregone conclusion. Shan’ann’s younger brother’s angry rants on social media also seemed to confirm the likelihood of a criminal trial as a foregone conclusion.

More: Christopher Watts blames his wife for daughters’ killings, court documents say – CBS

Chris Watts case: Read the full arrest affidavit compiled by Colorado investigators, FBI – ABC Action News

Chris Watts case: What we learned from unsealed affidavit – CNN

Chris Watts charged with murder, unlawful termination of a pregnancy in deaths of wife, daughters – The Denver Channel

18CR2003 The People of the State of Colorado v. Christopher Lee Watts – Courts.State.co.us

Warrantless Arrest Affidavit – Courts.State.co.us

#46 Sunday August 19th, 2018: Nichol Kessinger searches “Amber Frey Book Deal, Net Worth” on Google #1yearagotodayCW

The final entry in the 50 page Phone Data Review is this one, on August 19th.


Did people hate Amber Frey?

Do people hate Nichol Kessinger?

If the answer to these questions are different, why are they different?

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Amber Frey emerged as a hero in the Scott Peterson trial. She played a key role in his arrest and an even more prominent role in his conviction. Many of the circumstances of the Watts case are similar to the Peterson case. Laci Peterson was 8 months pregnant, Scott Peterson was cheating on her with Amber, there were serious financial problems and Scott and Laci were also seen by the community and their families as the perfect couple.

The personalities of Laci and Shan’ann and Scott and Chris are also broadly similar. The wives seemed to be in charge of their husbands, wearing the pants and holding the purse strings in the marriage. The husbands were handsome, not particularly successful in the career sense, and somewhat introverted. There’s even the notion of stealing the murdered wife’s jewelry and pawning it for much-needed pocket-money in both cases.

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Nichol Kessinger’s statements played a key role in the ultimate arrest and arguably, swift prosecution of Watts. Had she supported him to the end, even through a trial, things could have been very different.

It’s certainly possible that his version that Shan’ann murdered the children could have succeeded in a criminal court if he’d had her support and backing. The fact that Kessinger went to the police as soon as she did is the reason that never happened.

It should also be pointed out Kessinger went to the police within two days of finding out about the family’s disappearance. It’s not clear when Amber Frey went to the police, some reports say she went too the cops on December 30th, which was six days after Laci’s disappearance.

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But we do know the circumstances were different because Laci’s parents and friends maintained their faith in Scott’s innocence while the Rzuceks and Shan’ann’s friends did not. So in Amber’s case, the police didn’t want it immediately known when they knew about Amber. This also allowed Amber to secretly record many conversations with Scott for three weeks after Laci’s disappearance.

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This is another big difference in the two mistresses. Kessinger broke off her relationship almost immediately while Amber Frey didn’t. Amber finally came forward publicly on January 17th, around 4 weeks after Laci’s disappearance.

The public have since praised Amber for double-crossing Scott despite her – a single mother – having an affair. Amber also knew Scott was married but assumed he was separated, or that his wife was dead, it’s not clear which.

Read the Rocket Science trilogy on the Scott Peterson case at this link.

More: Demystifying Kessinger’s “Amber Frey Moment”

Chris Watts: Inside the Mind of His Mistress

The Murder of Laci Peterson – Dr. Oz

Amber Frey unravels Scott Peterson’s Lies – NBC

Profile of Amber Frey, Ex-Mistress of Murderer Scott Peterson – Thought Co

What Is Amber Frey Doing In 2017? Scott Peterson’s Ex-Girlfriend Has Moved On From The Case – Bustle

#45 Friday August 17th, 2018: “Mr. Watts, why did you kill your wife and two children?” #1yearagotodayCW

The bodies of both little girls were retrieved in the mid to late afternoon on Thursday. Bear in mind the children were murdered Sunday night, but even if we accept they were murdered Monday morning, it took until Thursday afternoon to simply retrieve their bodies. For those thinking this was an easy or simple case to investigate, prosecute or just figure out, think again.

Watts’ exit strategy may have been seriously flawed and poorly conceived, but his execution was far from the worst of the dozen or so high-profile cases True Crime Rocket Science has analyzed over the past few years.

Moving on to Friday, August 17th. It doesn’t appear at all in the Phone Data Review. One reason for this is that Watts’ phone had been confiscated at this point. [Kessinger was still using hers, however]. August 17th is the first day since July 4th where a day is missing from the timeline. June 17th is nevertheless a very significant day.

Just one day after Watt’s arrest, he’s already assembled [or one has been assembled for him] a sizable legal team. On the same day but prior to his court appearance on August 17th, several members of his defense team are actively working inside his home; boxing evidence, taking photos, scribbling notes and making observations.


Watts’ neighbor, possibly Nate Trinastich, calls in a burglary next door. Then, this happens.


I deal with the details of the cops entering the scene in book six of the TWO FACE series. One detail worth noting here is the camera equipment set up below the stairs.



Chris Watts appears shackled in court as bodies of missing pregnant wife and two daughters, 3 and 4, are found – The Mirror

It should be noted that as early as August 17th the media was reporting on the fact that prosecutors believed the crime scene [where all three murders took place] was inside the Watts home.

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When Watts emerges for his “perp walk” wearing his orange outfit for the first time, a local reporter calls out:

“Mr. Watts, why did you kill your wife and two children?”

During the court session, the bald fellow [James Edward Merson] that had been in Watts’ home gathering evidence can be seen seated at Watts’ right hand. Nothing ever came of the “defense case” that day, nor ever since.

Read the most highly rated and reviewed book in the definitive TWO FACE series.

#44 Thursday August 16th, 2018: “He fooled us” #1yearagotodayCW

Shan’ann Watts’ body was exhumed at 23:00 on August 15th, about the same time Watts was arrested and taken into custody.

From the station in Frederick Watts was taken to Weld County Jail by Officer James. The same officer had taken Watts’ father earlier in the evening to local hotels on Firestone Boulevard.

He didn’t know it just then, but that night was to be the first night of the rest of Watts’ new life – not surfing sand dunes but wiling away his life, reading the bible and tattered prison paperbacks all within an incarcerated state. So much for keeping his home, his girlfriend and people’s good impression of him – within three days of the murder he’d lost all of that, as well as his freedom for the rest of his life.

The Phone Data Review has one fairly nondescript entry for Thursday the 16th.

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It’s easy to forget this aspect one year later, but immediately after Watts’ arrest, the Thayer couple did a series of interviews with the media. Some following this case may recall that Nick and Amanda had let Watts sleep over in their home on Tuesday night, August 14th, following a few hours of questioning by the FBI. Nick [a professional photographer] and Watts were jogging pals. Nick Thayer had taken the now famous Watts Family Photos and also likely photographed Shan’ann’s spread for a Thrive magazine promotion.


Shan’ann and Amanda [an education director] were friends and fellow Thrivers.


The couple had copped a lot of flack online for harboring a man suspected of killing his family. Many who had watched the Sermon on the Porch reckoned Watts story didn’t add up, but the Thayers seemed to feel differently. They’d actually stood beside him, off camera, while he addressed the media.

Prior to his arrest the Thayers defended their decision to on social media, and defended Watts. But on Thursday and Friday they did damage control, doing back to back interviews, apologizing to the public – as well as their own daughter – for their mistake.

Although Watts is often criticized, not without justification, the Thayers were among those duped by his explanations. Watts may not have had much game, but it’s not like he didn’t have any game.

More: ‘He fooled us’: Friends of man who allegedly killed pregnant wife, daughters speak out after shocking arrest – ABC

Couple who defended Chris Watts ‘had no idea’ – 9News

The interview on Thursday following the arrest of her former boyfriend was the second Kessinger had given to law enforcement, but it was the first time Kessinger and CBI agent Greg Zentner sat down together.

Zentner was easygoing, sometimes he seemed too easy going, just as Coder seemed perhaps too friendly to Watts in the beginning. But don’t be fooled, Zentner’s no slouch, he’d already interviewed another Nickole [Atkinson] at length at her work place. He knew what was going on and he knew to approach these people carefully and in a friendly, somewhat firm and open manner.

The other question to ask is if you’d sent naked pictures of yourself, would you want the world to see all that, even within the context of a crime? The point is, it doesn’t matter what you or I would do, Kessinger didn’t want to do that. And on this point, she was questioned by Zentner.

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The interrogation above, recorded in camera, was Kessinger’s third meeting with law enforcement, from August 17th at Thornton Police Department. Discovery Documents page 568 onwards. Her second meeting with law enforcement occurred on August 16th, the day after Watts’ arrest.

Kessinger’s reason to Zentner isn’t the full story of course. She had other reasons to delete their affair, principally the fact that she wanted to keep her job. It’s important to draw a distinction between the interrogation with Watts and the interviews with Kessinger. If Watts lies, he’s covering up the premeditated murder of his own family. If Kessinger’s economical with the truth, she’s covering aspects of an affair she considers private and not necessarily relevant. There’s a tradeoff here between her and law enforcement. If they don’t go after everything, she’ll co-operate.

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And Kessinger does provide law enforcement with a lot to go on. She tells them about her two visits to the Watts home. We still haven’t seen security footage of this, either from the neighbor of potentially from Watts’ doorbell camera.

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Something else we still haven’t seen are those dozens of naked and semi-naked images sent by Kessinger to Watts, and that is as it should be. Fact is, while it would be tabloid gold, it’s not in the public interest in the conventional sense that true crime is meant to be. Even so, Weld County have released some images that give one a sense of the relationship between the two Anadarko co-workers. It’s sufficient.

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What does come through quite strongly in Kessinger’s interviews is even though by August 16th it’s clear Watts probably murdered his wife [her body was recovered from a well site he visited, and her death was reported in the media], it doesn’t seem to really register with Kessinger. She seems to be in a dreamworld, and Agent Zentner would – from time to time – have to remind her that she was talking him about her former boyfriend not for fun, not for tiddlywinks, but as part of a murder investigation.

#43 Wednesday August 15th, 2018: “If you did have something to do with the disappearance, it would be really stupid for you to come in and take a Polygraph Today.” #1yearagotodayCW

If Chris Watts and Nichol Kessinger were lovebirds waiting in the wings on Sunday night, and even Monday night, by Wednesday it was all over. Not only weren’t they talking to each other, and likely haven’t since, both were on a mission to extinguish all digital traces of the other, Kessinger in particular.

The advantage of a narrative that’s broken down into a series, and each book into parts, and parts into chapters, and chapters systematically going through all the versions and perspectives, is it’s the only way to thoroughly account for everything. A television documentary is woefully too short to do due diligence to these details, and God – and the devil – reside exactly here: in the details. Even documentary series like the Paradise Lost trilogy [West Memphis Three], the Making a Murderer series [comprising twenty hour-long episodes] and recently The Disappearance of Madeleine McCann series [eight parts] can’t do the sort of painstaking analysis that a finely crafted narrative can. Documentaries have their place of course. A picture, and a simple soundbite from a guilty suspect, can say a thousand words, and in true crime, often several thousand words of court transcripts.

To illustrate what I mean, consider the tattered remains of the Phone Data Review. Just 5 timestamps. It doesn’t seem like much is really happening, does it? Even if we sit in on all seven hours of Watts with Agent Tammy Lee and the FBI, we’re likely to get bored and bleary eyed pretty quickly. Skip to the highlights right?

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What surprised me even as a seasoned true crime investigator, as I analyzed and transcribed these tapes in TWO FACE RAPE OF CASSANDRA and TWO FACE DRILLING THROUGH DISCOVERY, was the strategic mindfuckery the interrogators were using on Watts. It’s not Rocket Science. You sit him down and get him talking. You keep him there, but don’t make him feel like he’s being kept there against his will. While he’s sitting there, you have someone taking notes, recording details, setting up a list of additional questions. You’re already pulling phone records and getting intel from his employers, friends and other witnesses. You collate and cross reference that data. You have at least two people taking turns, questioning him, wearing him down. One steps out, takes a break, gets more intel, steps back in. It looks like one against one, one criminal mind versus one law enforcement mind at a time, but it’s not. That’s an illusion. It’s one mind stuck in a cubicle while a machine is working behind the scenes.

Very quickly a profile set up and a dossier decided upon by a team of cops, prosecutors and agents – on how to go after this guy, and this case. If it all seems rather dull in that little interview room, well, it’s because it’s supposed to look that way.

Part of the magic that’s not to easy to brew is how law enforcement needs to be face to face with the suspect. How long do you let him talk? What boundaries do you set? At what point do you stop playing his friend and Mr. Nice Guy and start interrupting him [and thus raising his own alarm bells], and saying, “Hey, this doesn’t make sense?” This is a dance law enforcement need to do with criminals and they’re experienced at it, but it takes a while to find the right rhymn. And while they’re finding out who he is, he’s finding out what they know [and what he can get away with].

Even the Discovery Documents don’t reveal what law enforcement thought of the situation at the time. It simply records, glosses over, their superficial first drafts of intelligence gathering. We only get a sense of their insight in the affidavit, during sentencing and on the few occasions when the District Attorney addressed the media, and even then they’ve kept their cards close to their chests.

By going systematically through the actual timeline, minute by minute, hour after hour, we start to piece together how the cops got Watts to where he needed to go. We also see that while Watts was being interrogated, so was Kessinger. Let’s start with her.


We won’t go into much detail here, just touching on the broad strokes. At around 14:00 Kessinger and her father met with two FBI Agents and to discuss the nature of her affair with her co-worker. The meeting took place in Arvada.

Also worth bearing in mind as an overarching context:

The amount of resources dedicated to this case almost instantly was dizzying. [Behind the scenes, Anadarko was likely doing the same, battening down the hatches].

Now, getting back to Kessinger, it should be noted that the very last image of Kessinger moved to Watt’s Secret Calculator app was transferred on Tuesday morning at 09:29. The deleting of text messages off Kessinger’s phone started [as far as we know] on Tuesday afternoon at 17:00.

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By Tuesday afternoon, Watts’ Sermon on the Porch had aired, Kessinger had seen it, everyone had seen it, and after work that day Kessinger got rid of a lot of evidence on her phone. On the one hand one could argue it was obstruction of justice, on the other, Kessinger was just taking her of herself. Which was it? Bear in mind when Kessinger started deleting her messages Watts hadn’t been charged with anything yet.

There’s a final aspect to mention that I didn’t really deal with in yesterday’s analysis. We see Kessinger very actively Googling and deleting her search history throughout Tuesday. What this shows is Kessinger was pretty capable and sophisticated at navigating the online space – just as many of us are. It also suggests if she wanted information [say, on Watts’ wife], she could get it, and she knew where and how to get it. If we see Kessinger very quickly appraising herself of the news online after the fact, doesn’t this suggest she was also just as capable of snooping on Shan’ann before the fact?

Now let’s gloss through the interrogation with Watts.


Imagine the mindbending mindfuckery loaded into this scenario.

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It might seem straightforward. Just don’t take the lie-detector test, right? It’s not that straightforward. If Watts lets on that he’s reluctant, or resistant or anxious to take the test, he knows this will immediately cast suspicion on him. He’s trying to avoid that. True to type, he’s trying to play it cool and fly casual.

Had Watts been of sound mind, and taken legal advice, he could easily have stalled and said he’s prepared to do the lie detector, but wants to focus on his family first, and if the police suspect him, he thinks he should get a lawyer.

The other side of the equation is Watts’ brazen arrogance. Just as he committed the crime imagining he could get away with it with a sneak here and a sly move there [just as he had gotten away with the affair for 5.5 weeks], he thought he might get away with the polygraph.

But Tammy Lee outfoxed him here as well. The polygraph went on for hours. Some of it was really mindmelting stuff. Imagine being in his position. You’re guilty, pretending not to be. Lying, pretending to tell the truth. Now the polygrapher, pre-test, tells you:

“Okay I want you to purposely lie now. I just want to get a reading on that.”

So what does he do? How does he think about that?

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It wasn’t just a ten minute test either, and in carefully controlled instances where suspects have legal representation, these examinations are kept as brief as possible. It does take a prescribed period to get what is known as a “baseline”, and from there the lie detector is conducted, often with just three questions to “test” against these baseline measurements.

The FBI are typically extremely rigorous when conducting these kinds of tests, which is why lawyers, like the Ramsey lawyers, wanted their clients tested casually in a much more limited setting.

More: Ramseys Decline to Take Polygraph – The Washington Post


Polygraph results released – Boulder Daily Camera

Ramseys Say They Passed Polygraph Test – LA Times

Ramseys Pass Private Polygraphs – CBS

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The third question asked was:

Are you lying about the last time you saw Shan’ann?

Watts answered “No”, to all three. He lied in all three answers.

A polygraph test is often [but not always] inadmissible in court. It’s not sufficient to prove the guilt of a suspect in court, but it’s an excellent way to gauge just how “off baseline” a stranger might be in terms of a particular case and set of circumstances.

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During the Sermon on the Porch the world saw what a terrible liar Watts was. The polygraph test confirmed the same. Shan’ann said the same herself:

He has no game.

He was starting to think he did, which is why he committed the crimes to begin with. He wanted to be a new guy with a new game.

For those who still think Watts is a heartless psychopath, true psychopaths can pass polygraphs. Not all of them will necessarily pass a test, but some can and do. Why? Because they don’t register emotions the way most of us do. Just because Watts looks like he’s showing emotion, it doesn’t mean he’s not feeling it – that’s it’s not registering – underneath. That’s an introvert for you. But don’t confuse introversion for psychopathy. It might look similar in some ways, but the wiring is different.

It’s also a different argument to say whether Watts had no remorse for what he did. Probably he did have some remorse, far less than we’d expect. But in a premeditated murder he’s obvious made up his mind what he wants, and it’s taken him a few days or weeks to prepare himself emotionally. This affect right here is the result of weeks of emotional and mental gearing.

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It’s probably not true that when Watts walked into the room on Wednesday morning that “he knew he wasn’t walking out”. By going step-by-step through the interrogation as I do in RAPE OF CASSANDRA, he clearly backs himself for hours. Probably there was a point during the interrogation when he suspected his goose was cooked. Even then he imagined the cops weren’t going to let him go, but in that scenario it was still Shan’ann taking the rap for half of what had happened. He’d still left himself with a loophole.

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Before the end of the day Watts writes on a printout where the three bodies of his family are lying, and a search warrant is urgently issued to go and recover them.

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To get the full story, the only definitive narrative on the Watts case, read the TWO FACE series, available exclusively on Amazon Kindle and Kindle Unlimited.

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